Despite Bitcoin's recent 15% increase this month, with its value at $76,794.61, some experts remain unconvinced that the cryptocurrency has escaped the bear market that began in October, given it is still 40% below its record high. Some forecasters predict a potential drop to $40,000, a 70% decline from its all-time high, with analyst James Check deeming such a move statistically extraordinary, though not impossible.
Check references the Bitcoin Mean Reversion Index, which ranks Bitcoin's price on a historical percentile basis, indicating that a price of $40,000 would be a 0.4th percentile event, far below any meaningful deviation, equivalent to Bitcoin trading below $2 in 2011 on a relative basis. Today's price sits around the 31.5th percentile, historically weak but within normal correction ranges.
Check notes that while there's no zero probability in markets, a $40,000 price point would be a near-unprecedented outcome.