Bitcoin has maintained its position above $77,000, following a significant surge earlier in the week to its highest level since February. This upward trend puts the cryptocurrency on track for a 13.6% increase in April, marking its best monthly performance in a year, according to data from CoinGlass.
The improvement comes after a prolonged period of decline, with crypto markets experiencing their longest losing streak since 2018. The recent turnaround is attributed to an enhanced macroeconomic backdrop, with US equities, including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, reaching record highs after a brief correction.
A key driver of this growth is the $5 billion increase in Tether's USDT stablecoin supply over the past two weeks, which has now reached nearly $150 billion. This expansion is significant, as stablecoins facilitate liquidity in crypto markets, indicating a healthy influx of capital. Analysts view stablecoin growth as a positive signal for asset prices.
Despite persistent geopolitical tensions and uncertainty surrounding the Iran conflict, which have kept oil prices elevated, markets appear to be looking beyond these concerns. Jasper de Maere, an OTC trader at Wintermute, observed that equities and crypto markets seem to have become indifferent to intricate headlines about the conflict, suggesting a level of fatigue and complacency. He noted that robust corporate earnings and resilient equity markets are offsetting concerns about higher energy costs and geopolitical risks. The upcoming FOMC meeting will be a crucial test for the current rally.
Bitcoin is currently hovering near the top of its trading range, with the $79,000 level proving to be a significant barrier. Adam Haeems, head of asset management at Tesseract Group, stated that this level is structurally important due to the heavy institutional overhead supply just above it. The ability of bitcoin to break through this level will depend on the drivers of the move and the participants involved.
A breakout backed by sustained institutional demand could mark a more durable shift, while a move driven primarily by short covering may fade once momentum cools. The next test will come with the April Fed meeting, which could determine whether the current rally holds. If ETF inflows continue through this event, Haeems believes that $79,000 could transition from resistance to support, paving the way for a higher trading range. Conversely, if flows fade, bitcoin may revert to the $75,000–$77,000 range.