A historic stock market debut is imminent, with SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO) expected to take place in June, potentially drawing interest away from crypto markets. The company has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, targeting a $75 billion capital raise at a $1.75 trillion valuation.
If successful, this would be the largest stock market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019. SpaceX is not alone, as OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning to go public, with the three companies potentially raising over $240 billion from June through the end of the year.
This massive capital pull could have a significant impact on crypto markets, which share the same liquidity pool as tech and AI equities. The historical parallel with Coinbase's IPO in 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, is a point of concern. Traders who read the IPO as a signal that crypto was going mainstream spent the next six months watching mainstream capital rotate out. The lesson is that institutional milestones frequently mark tops rather than starting lines, because the capital that chases the milestone is the same capital that was previously holding up the asset.
With SpaceX's IPO on the horizon, the question is whether crypto will hold up through the roadshow window in May and June or begin to drift lower as allocators free up room for the SpaceX subscription.