A historic stock market debut is on the horizon, with SpaceX's expected June listing drawing significant interest from investors. The company has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming for a $75 billion capital raise at a valuation of $1.75 trillion. This would not only surpass Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record but also make it the largest stock market debut in history.
OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning their IPOs, with the three companies potentially raising over $240 billion from June through the end of the year. This massive capital pull could have a significant impact on the crypto market, as it draws from the same liquidity pool. With bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies trading in tandem with the Nasdaq and S&P 500, a rotation out of equities and into IPOs could lead to a compression of liquidity in the crypto market.
The historical parallel with Coinbase's IPO in 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, serves as a cautionary tale. The 30% retail allocation in SpaceX's IPO, roughly $22 billion, could also divert funds away from the crypto market. As the roadshow window approaches in May and June, the crypto market's response will be a key indicator of whether it has decoupled from broader risk-on flows.