A historic stock market debut is imminent, with SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO) expected in June, which could have a significant impact on the crypto market. The company has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming to raise $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion. This would not only be the largest stock market debut in history but also more than 2.5 times larger than Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019.
OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning to go public, with the former targeting a Q4 listing at a near $1 trillion valuation and the latter aiming for an October debut that could raise over $60 billion. If these listings occur as planned, they would collectively pull in over $240 billion from June through the end of the year, surpassing the total amount raised by all venture-backed US IPOs since 2000.
This massive capital pull could lead to a compression of liquidity in the crypto market, as bitcoin and other digital assets are closely correlated with tech and AI equities. The historical precedent of Coinbase's IPO in April 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, serves as a cautionary tale. The 30% retail allocation of SpaceX's IPO, approximately $22 billion, could also divert funds away from the crypto market.
Furthermore, SpaceX's disclosed bitcoin position of 8,285 BTC, worth around $600 million, makes its IPO the first public-market debut of a company with a significant bitcoin holding. The crypto market's response to these developments will be closely watched, particularly during the roadshow window in May and June.