A historic stock market debut is imminent, with SpaceX's $75 billion initial public offering (IPO) expected to draw significant interest and potentially divert liquidity away from the crypto market. The company has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming for a $1.75 trillion valuation. If successful, this would surpass Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019, making it the largest stock market debut in history.
SpaceX is not alone, as OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning to go public, with the three companies potentially raising over $240 billion from June to the end of the year. This massive capital pull could lead to a rotation out of equities and impact the crypto market, which shares the same liquidity pool as tech and AI stocks.
The correlation between crypto and traditional assets, such as the Nasdaq and S&P 500, has tightened over the past two cycles, suggesting that a significant allocation of capital to the IPOs could lead to a decline in crypto prices. Furthermore, the 30% retail allocation of SpaceX's IPO, approximately $22 billion, could divert funds away from crypto investments.
Additionally, SpaceX holds a significant amount of bitcoin, around 8,285 BTC, worth roughly $600 million, making its IPO the first public-market debut of a company with a material bitcoin position disclosed under new fair-value accounting rules. The impact of the SpaceX IPO on the crypto market will be closely watched, particularly during the roadshow window in May and June, to determine whether crypto can decouple from broader risk-on flows.