A historic stock market debut is imminent, with SpaceX's $75 billion IPO expected to take place in June, potentially drawing interest away from crypto. SpaceX filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming for a $1.75 trillion valuation, which would make it the largest stock market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019. This massive capital raise, combined with the upcoming listings of OpenAI and Anthropic, could pull in over $240 billion from June to year-end, exceeding the total venture-backed US IPOs since 2000.
The crypto market, being part of the same liquidity pool, may be affected as speculative capital leaves equities for IPO allocations, potentially leading to a compression of liquidity in crypto assets. The historical parallel with Coinbase's listing in 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, raises concerns that institutional milestones may signal tops rather than starting lines. With SpaceX's IPO featuring a 30% retail allocation and the company holding a material bitcoin position, the testable signal will be whether crypto holds up through the roadshow window in May and June or begins to drift lower as allocators free up room for the SpaceX subscription.