A historic stock market debut is approaching, with SpaceX's $75 billion IPO expected to draw significant interest from investors. This massive capital raise, combined with the upcoming listings of OpenAI and Anthropic, could pull in over $240 billion from June to the end of the year, exceeding the total venture-backed US IPOs since 2000. As a result, crypto markets may experience a liquidity crunch, as investors allocate funds to these high-profile IPOs. The correlation between crypto and tech equities, particularly the Nasdaq and S&P 500, has been tightening over the past two cycles, suggesting that a rotation out of equities could impact crypto prices.
Furthermore, the 30% retail allocation of SpaceX's IPO, approximately $22 billion, may divert funds away from crypto assets, including bitcoin and altcoins. With SpaceX holding a significant position in bitcoin, its IPO will be the first public-market debut of a company with a material bitcoin holding disclosed under new fair-value accounting rules.
The performance of crypto markets during the IPO roadshow in May and June will be a key indicator of whether crypto has decoupled from broader risk-on flows.