Bitcoin's Uptrend Faces Challenge from Pentagon's Inflation Warning

As bitcoin appeared poised to break through the $80,000 barrier, macroeconomic uncertainty resurfaced, posing a significant challenge. The Pentagon's recent classified briefing to U.S. lawmakers revealed that clearing mines in the Strait of Hormuz could take at least six months, potentially keeping oil and gasoline prices elevated until the U.S.-Iran conflict is resolved, as reported by the Washington Post. This persistent inflation could limit the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates, creating a difficult environment for risk assets like bitcoin, which are highly sensitive to interest rates and global liquidity. Rising essential costs may also deter investors from allocating capital to speculative assets. Market indicators such as WTI crude and government bond yields are already reflecting these risks, with crude climbing to $95 from $79 and the U.S. 10-year yield increasing to 4.32%. Despite sustained demand for U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs, some analysts urge caution, citing the rally's lack of broad-based support in the spot market and the potential for correction if traders start taking profits while spot demand continues to contract. The market capitalization of USDT has reached a record high, and speculation in non-serious tokens is intensifying, signaling a need for caution. The ratio between bitcoin's price and gold has been rising, with the 50-day average potentially crossing above the 100-day average, indicating a bullish shift in momentum.