A historic stock market debut is imminent, with SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO) expected to take place in June, drawing from the same liquidity pool as bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. The company has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming to raise $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion. This would make it the largest stock market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019. The massive capital raise is likely to have a significant impact on the liquidity of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, as it will compete with them for investment dollars.
OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning to go public, with valuations near $1 trillion and $60 billion, respectively. The combined capital raise of over $240 billion is expected to exceed every venture-backed US IPO since 2000. The impact on crypto is uncertain, but some experts warn that the IPO could trigger a rotation out of equities and into the new listings, potentially affecting the price of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. The historical parallel with Coinbase's IPO in 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, is a point of concern.
However, the current market conditions are different, and the outcome is uncertain. The 30% retail allocation of the SpaceX IPO, roughly $22 billion, is also notable, as it could divert funds away from cryptocurrencies. Additionally, SpaceX's material bitcoin position, worth around $600 million, makes its IPO the first public-market debut of a company with a disclosed bitcoin position under the new fair-value accounting rules.