The recent surge in Bitcoin's price, driven by the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, is losing momentum as markets seek concrete results that could alleviate war-related economic stress. After briefly surpassing $76,000, the cryptocurrency's price has fallen back, repeating the choppy pattern seen on Tuesday. This stall comes after a 10% increase, primarily fueled by the ceasefire news from the previous week.
However, despite ongoing optimism and President Donald Trump's suggestion that the conflict is nearing its end, progress in negotiations to restore oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz remains limited. According to QCP Capital, one of the world's largest digital asset market makers, 'a ceasefire extension alone is no longer sufficient; markets require tangible progress, such as restored energy flows, reduced crude premia, and clearer disinflation.' Traders should monitor oil prices closely, as signs of normalization are likely to emerge in energy markets first.
The recent decline in Bitcoin and Ether's 30-day implied volatility indexes suggests traders expect significant progress soon. Meanwhile, Solana and DOGE may experience increased volatility due to rising demand for leveraged exposure, as evidenced by the climb in open futures contracts tied to these tokens. Alex Kuptsikevich, FxPro's chief market analyst, notes that Solana has outperformed the market over the last day but has failed to consolidate above the $105 level, a crucial milestone for the bulls. The MOVE index, which measures U.S.
Treasury note volatility, has declined to 65%, reversing the war-led spike to 115% in March, a bullish sign for risk assets. In traditional markets, stability in the U.S. bond market is easing credit and financial conditions.