A historic stock market debut is imminent, and its impact on the crypto market is uncertain. SpaceX has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming to raise $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion.
This listing, expected in June, could be the largest in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019. Additionally, OpenAI and Anthropic are planning their own listings, which could raise over $60 billion and $1 trillion, respectively.
The combined capital raise of over $240 billion from June to year-end could exceed every venture-backed US IPO since 2000. This massive influx of capital may lead to a rotation out of equities and into these new listings, potentially affecting the crypto market.
Crypto assets, including bitcoin, have traded in tandem with tech and AI equities, and a shift in speculative capital could impact their value. The historical parallel with Coinbase's listing in 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, is a point of concern.
The 30% retail allocation in SpaceX's IPO, roughly $22 billion, may also divert funds away from crypto assets. Furthermore, SpaceX's disclosed bitcoin position of 8,285 BTC, worth around $600 million, adds another layer of complexity to the situation. The upcoming roadshow window in May and June will be a test of whether crypto can hold up against the impending IPO or if it will begin to decline as allocators prepare for the SpaceX listing.