Bitcoin's Upward Momentum Faces Challenge from Pentagon's Inflation Warning

Bitcoin's attempted breakout above $80,000 has been hindered by renewed macroeconomic uncertainty. A classified Pentagon briefing to US lawmakers warned that clearing mines in the Strait of Hormuz could take at least six months, potentially keeping oil and gasoline prices high through the midterm elections. This could lead to persistent inflation, limiting the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates and negatively impacting risk assets like bitcoin. Rising energy costs may also reduce investor appetite for speculative assets. Market indicators such as WTI crude and government bond yields are already reflecting these risks. While US-listed spot bitcoin ETFs are seeing sustained demand, some analysts caution that the rally lacks broad-based support in the spot market, increasing the risk of a correction. The market capitalization of the largest dollar-pegged stablecoin, USDT, has reached a record high, and speculation in non-serious tokens is intensifying. The ratio of bitcoin's price to gold has been rising, with the 50-day moving average potentially crossing above the 100-day average, indicating a bullish shift in momentum.