A historic stock market debut is imminent, with SpaceX's initial public offering expected to take place in June, drawing interest from the same liquidity pool as crypto. The company has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming for a $75 billion capital raise at a valuation of $1.75 trillion. This would make it the largest stock market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019.
Furthermore, OpenAI and Anthropic are also set to go public, with the three companies combined expected to raise over $240 billion from June to the end of the year, exceeding the total venture-backed US IPOs since 2000. This massive capital pull could have a significant impact on the crypto market, as it sits in the same risk-on liquidity pool as tech and AI equities. The correlation between bitcoin, ether, and other majors with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 has been tightening over the past two cycles. As a result, when speculative capital leaves equities for an IPO allocation, some of the capital that would otherwise bid up higher-beta assets, including crypto, may be redirected.
Historically, institutional milestones have often marked tops rather than starting lines, as the capital that chases the milestone is the same capital that was previously holding up the asset. The SpaceX IPO, in particular, has two features that connect directly to crypto flows: a 30% retail allocation and the company's material bitcoin position disclosed under the new fair-value accounting rules. The testable signal going forward is whether crypto holds up through the roadshow window in May and June or begins to drift lower as allocators free up room for the SpaceX subscription.