A historic stock market debut is approaching, with SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO) expected to take place in June, drawing interest from the same liquidity pool as crypto. SpaceX has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming for a $75 billion capital raise at a valuation of $1.75 trillion.
If successful, this would be the largest stock market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019. Polymarket traders predict a 65% chance of the IPO occurring in June and a 53% chance that the first-day closing market cap will exceed $2 trillion.
Meanwhile, OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning to go public, with valuations near $1 trillion and $60 billion, respectively. The combined capital raised by these three companies could exceed $240 billion, a figure that surpasses every venture-backed US IPO since 2000, according to PitchBook. This massive influx of capital may lead to a bearish market for equities, with some experts warning that it could trigger a rotation out of crypto and other high-risk assets.
The correlation between crypto and tech stocks has been tightening over the past two cycles, with bitcoin and ether trading in tandem with the Nasdaq and S&P 500. When speculative capital leaves equities for an IPO allocation, some of that capital may also leave crypto, potentially leading to a decline in prices. Historical parallels, such as the Coinbase IPO in 2021, suggest that institutional milestones can mark the top of a cycle rather than the beginning.
SpaceX's IPO may have a direct impact on crypto flows, with a 30% retail allocation and the company's holding of 8,285 BTC worth approximately $600 million. The testable signal going forward will be whether crypto can hold up through the roadshow window in May and June or begins to drift lower as allocators free up room for the SpaceX subscription.
A bitcoin rally that extends through the roadshow could suggest that the spot-ETF bid has decoupled crypto from broader risk-on flows.