A historic stock market debut is expected in six weeks, and the crypto market is bracing for potential impact. SpaceX has filed for a $75 billion initial public offering, which could be the largest in history, with a valuation of $1.75 trillion. The company's listing, along with those of OpenAI and Anthropic, could pull in over $240 billion from June to the end of the year, surpassing the total amount raised by all venture-backed US initial public offerings since 2000. This massive capital influx may affect the liquidity of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, as they share the same liquidity pool as tech and AI equities.
The correlation between crypto and traditional markets has been tightening, with bitcoin and ether trading in tandem with the Nasdaq and S&P 500. When speculative capital leaves equities for an IPO allocation, it may also impact the crypto market. The historical parallel with Coinbase's listing in 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, is a point of concern.
The SpaceX IPO, with its 30% retail allocation and material bitcoin position, may also influence crypto flows. The testable signal going forward will be whether crypto holds up through the roadshow window in May and June or begins to drift lower as allocators free up room for the SpaceX subscription.