A historic stock market debut is imminent, and it may have significant implications for the crypto space. SpaceX has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming to raise $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion.
This would not only be the largest stock market debut in history but also more than 2.5 times larger than Saudi Aramco's $29 billion IPO in 2019. The listing is expected to take place in June, with Polymarket traders assigning a 65% probability to this timeline and a 53% probability that the first-day closing market cap will exceed $2 trillion. SpaceX is not alone in its plans, as OpenAI and Anthropic are also preparing for listings, which could collectively raise over $240 billion from June to the end of the year.
This amount surpasses the total venture-backed US IPOs since 2000, according to PitchBook estimates. The significant capital pull from these listings could lead to a rotation out of equities and into these new listings, potentially affecting the crypto market. Crypto assets, including bitcoin and ether, have shown a tightening correlation with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 over the past two cycles.
As speculative capital leaves equities for IPO allocations, it may also reduce the capital available to bid up higher-beta assets like crypto. Historical parallels, such as the Coinbase listing in April 2021, which coincided with the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, suggest that institutional milestones can mark tops rather than starting lines.
The SpaceX IPO has two key features that connect directly to crypto flows: a 30% retail allocation, which is three times the typical retail share for a deal of this size, and the company's holding of 8,285 BTC worth roughly $600 million. The retail allocation could divert funds away from crypto, while SpaceX's bitcoin holdings make its IPO the first public-market debut of a company with a material bitcoin position disclosed under new fair-value accounting rules.
The performance of crypto during the roadshow window in May and June will be a testable signal, indicating whether crypto has decoupled from broader risk-on flows or will be impacted by the SpaceX subscription.