In approximately six weeks, one of the largest stock market debuts in history is set to take place, and it may have a significant impact on the crypto market. SpaceX has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming to raise $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion.
This IPO, combined with the upcoming listings of OpenAI and Anthropic, is expected to pull in over $240 billion in capital from June to the end of the year, exceeding the total amount raised by all venture-backed US IPOs since 2000. The massive influx of capital into the stock market may lead to a decrease in liquidity for bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, as investors allocate their funds to these new IPOs. Crypto assets, including bitcoin and ether, have been trading in close correlation with the Nasdaq and S&P 500, and a rotation of capital out of equities and into IPOs could negatively impact their prices. The historical precedent of Coinbase's IPO in 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, serves as a cautionary tale.
The upcoming SpaceX IPO, with its significant retail allocation and material bitcoin position, will be a test of whether crypto can decouple from broader risk-on flows. The next six weeks will be crucial in determining the impact of this event on the crypto market.