A historic stock market debut is looming, with SpaceX's $75 billion IPO expected in June, which could have a significant impact on crypto due to their shared liquidity pool. SpaceX filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming for a $1.75 trillion valuation, which would make it the largest stock market debut in history if successful. The company is not alone, as OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning to go public, with estimated valuations of $1 trillion and $60 billion, respectively. The combined capital raise of over $240 billion from these IPOs could exceed the total venture-backed US IPOs since 2000, according to PitchBook.
This massive influx of capital may lead to a rotation out of equities and into these new listings, potentially causing a bearish trend in the market. Crypto, being part of the same risk-on liquidity pool as tech and AI equities, may be affected as speculative capital leaves equities for IPO allocations.
The historical parallel with Coinbase's IPO in 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, is a point of concern. The 30% retail allocation in SpaceX's IPO, roughly $22 billion, could also impact crypto flows as this capital will not be available for investing in crypto.
Furthermore, SpaceX holds 8,285 BTC, worth approximately $600 million, making its IPO the first public-market debut of a company with a material bitcoin position disclosed under new accounting rules. The testable signal going forward is whether crypto can hold up through the roadshow window in May and June or begins to decline as allocators free up room for the SpaceX subscription.
A bitcoin rally extending through the roadshow suggests that crypto has decoupled from broader risk-on flows.