A historic stock market debut is imminent, with SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO) expected to take place in June, drawing interest from the same liquidity pool as crypto. The company has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming to raise $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion.
This would surpass Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019, making it the largest stock market debut in history. OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning to go public, with valuations nearing $1 trillion and $60 billion, respectively. The combined capital raised from these IPOs could exceed $240 billion, a figure that surpasses every venture-backed US IPO since 2000.
This massive influx of capital could lead to a rotation out of equities and into these new listings, potentially triggering a bearish trend in the market. The implications for crypto are significant, as it shares the same risk-on liquidity pool as tech and AI equities. Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies have traded in tandem with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 in recent cycles, and a decline in equities could lead to a decrease in crypto prices.
The historical parallel with Coinbase's listing in 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, is a cause for concern. The 30% retail allocation in SpaceX's IPO, worth approximately $22 billion, could also divert funds away from crypto.
Furthermore, SpaceX's disclosed bitcoin position of 8,285 BTC, worth around $600 million, makes its IPO the first public-market debut of a company with a material bitcoin holding. The performance of crypto during the roadshow window in May and June will be a key indicator of whether it can decouple from broader risk-on flows.