A historic stock market debut is imminent, with SpaceX's planned $75 billion IPO set to take place in June, which could significantly impact the crypto market. The company has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming for a $1.75 trillion valuation.
This listing, combined with the upcoming IPOs of OpenAI and Anthropic, is expected to raise over $240 billion from June to the end of the year, surpassing the total amount raised by all venture-backed US IPOs since 2000. This massive capital pull could lead to a reduction in liquidity, affecting not only the stock market but also the crypto space, as they share the same liquidity pool. The correlation between crypto and tech/AI equities has tightened over the past two cycles, with bitcoin and other majors trading in tandem with the Nasdaq and S&P 500. When speculative capital shifts from equities to IPO allocations, it may also impact the crypto market, as some of the capital that would have otherwise supported crypto is diverted to the IPOs.
The historical precedent of Coinbase's IPO in 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, serves as a cautionary tale. The upcoming SpaceX IPO, with its significant retail allocation and material bitcoin position, will be a test of whether crypto can decouple from broader risk-on flows or will be affected by the reduced liquidity.