As bitcoin appeared poised to break through the $80,000 threshold, macroeconomic uncertainty has reemerged as a significant obstacle. A recent classified briefing by the Pentagon to U.S.
lawmakers highlighted the potential for prolonged inflation, citing the time-consuming process of clearing mines in the Strait of Hormuz and the impact on oil prices. This warning, combined with rising energy costs, may limit the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates, creating a challenging environment for risk assets like bitcoin. The cryptocurrency's value is closely tied to interest rates and global liquidity conditions, making it vulnerable to fluctuations in these areas. Additionally, increasing costs for essential items such as fuel and food may reduce investors' appetite for speculative assets.
Market indicators, including the rise in WTI crude prices and government bond yields, signal tighter financial conditions and heightened market risks. While U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs have seen sustained demand, some analysts urge caution, noting that the recent price increase is driven primarily by demand in the perpetual futures market, with spot demand still contracting. The market capitalization of the largest dollar-pegged stablecoin, USDT, has reached a record high, and speculation in non-serious tokens is increasing, with overcrowding in bullish bets. The ratio of bitcoin's price to gold has been rising, with the 50-day moving average potentially crossing above the 100-day average, indicating a bullish shift in momentum.