A historic stock market debut is imminent, with SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO) expected in June, and its impact on crypto markets is a topic of interest. The company has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, targeting a $75 billion capital raise at a $1.75 trillion valuation. This would make it the largest stock market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019.
Polymarket traders predict a 65% probability of a June listing and a 53% chance that the first-day closing market cap will exceed $2 trillion. SpaceX is not alone, as OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning to go public, with the three companies potentially raising over $240 billion from June to year-end. This massive capital pull could have a significant impact on crypto markets, as it may drain liquidity from bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
The historical parallel with Coinbase's IPO in 2021 is a point of concern, as it marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, followed by a 50% drawdown. The upcoming SpaceX IPO has two features that connect directly to crypto flows: a 30% retail allocation and the company's material bitcoin position.
The testable signal going forward is whether crypto holds up through the roadshow window in May and June or begins to drift lower as allocators free up room for the SpaceX subscription.