A historic stock market debut is imminent, with SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO) expected to take place in June, and its impact on the crypto market is a topic of interest. SpaceX has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming to raise $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion.
This would make it the largest stock market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019. The likelihood of a June listing is estimated at 65% by Polymarket traders, with a 53% chance that the first-day closing market capitalization will exceed $2 trillion. SpaceX is not alone in its plans, as OpenAI, the creator of ChatGPT, is targeting a Q4 listing at a valuation near $1 trillion, while Anthropic is reportedly planning an October debut that could raise over $60 billion. The combined total of these IPOs could exceed $240 billion from June through the end of the year, a figure that surpasses the total of all venture-backed US IPOs since 2000, according to PitchBook estimates.
The massive influx of capital into these IPOs may lead to a decrease in liquidity in the crypto market, as investors allocate their funds to these new listings. Alex Good, founder of the crypto AI project Post Fiat, has expressed concerns that the SpaceX IPO could mark the beginning of a bearish trend in equities, which could have a negative impact on the crypto market.
The correlation between crypto and tech stocks has been tightening over the past two cycles, with bitcoin, ether, and other major cryptocurrencies trading in tandem with the Nasdaq and S&P 500. When speculative capital leaves equities for an IPO allocation, some of that capital may also leave the crypto market, potentially leading to a decline in value. The historical parallel with Coinbase's IPO in 2021 is a point of concern, as it marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, followed by a 50% drawdown within six weeks.
The lesson learned from this experience is that institutional milestones often mark the top of a cycle rather than the starting line, as the capital that chases these milestones is the same capital that was previously holding up the asset. Two features of the SpaceX listing are directly connected to crypto flows: the 30% retail allocation, which is three times the typical retail share on a deal of this size, and the fact that SpaceX itself holds 8,285 BTC worth roughly $600 million in Coinbase Prime custody. The testable signal going forward is whether crypto can hold up through the roadshow window in May and June or begins to drift lower as allocators free up room for the SpaceX subscription.
However, a bitcoin rally that extends through the roadshow suggests that the spot-ETF bid has decoupled crypto from broader risk-on flows. The impending SpaceX IPO is not a scaled-up version of Coinbase's IPO, but rather a different kind of event, priced into a market that has had five years to learn from the last one. Whether crypto treats this lesson as learned or learns it again will be visible in the market starting roughly six weeks from now.