Despite Bitcoin's recent 15% gain this month, reaching $78,048.96, some industry experts remain unconvinced that the largest cryptocurrency has escaped the bear market that began in October, given it is still 40% below its record high. Some forecasters predict a potential drop to as low as $40,000, a 70% decline from its all-time high. According to Bitcoin analyst James Check, such a move, although not impossible, would be statistically extraordinary.
Check references the Bitcoin Mean Reversion Index, which combines multiple valuation metrics, including the 200-week moving average and realized price, to rank Bitcoin's price on a historical percentile basis. At $40,000, Bitcoin would register as a 0.4 event, meaning it would fall in the 0.4th percentile of all daily closes, below any meaningful deviation across major anchors. For perspective, Check notes this would be equivalent to Bitcoin trading below $2 in 2011 on a relative basis, whereas the current price sits around the 31.5th percentile, historically weak but within normal correction ranges. Check emphasizes that while there is no zero probability in markets, a $40,000 price point would be a near-unprecedented outcome.