In six weeks, one of the largest stock market debuts in history is anticipated, and it may draw interest away from crypto assets. SpaceX has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming for a $75 billion capital raise at a $1.75 trillion valuation.
If successful, this will be more than 2.5 times larger than the previous record set by Saudi Aramco in 2019. The listing is expected to take place in June, with a 65% probability assigned by Polymarket traders and a 53% chance that the first-day closing market cap will exceed $2 trillion. SpaceX is not alone in its plans, as OpenAI and Anthropic are also preparing for listings, potentially raising over $60 billion and $1 trillion, respectively. The combined total of over $240 billion from these IPOs could exceed every venture-backed US IPO since 2000, according to PitchBook estimates.
This massive influx of capital may lead to a rotation out of equities and into these new listings, potentially affecting the liquidity that supports bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Crypto assets, including bitcoin and ether, have traded with increasing correlation to the Nasdaq and S&P 500 over the past two cycles, and when speculative capital leaves equities for an IPO allocation, some of that capital may also leave the crypto market.
The historical parallel with Coinbase's listing in 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, is a point of concern. The lesson from that event is that institutional milestones can mark tops rather than starting lines, as the capital that chases these milestones is often the same capital that was previously holding up the asset. SpaceX's IPO has two features that connect directly to crypto flows: a 30% retail allocation, which is three times the typical retail share, and the company's holding of 8,285 BTC worth roughly $600 million. The testable signal going forward is whether crypto holds up through the roadshow window in May and June or begins to drift lower as allocators free up room for the SpaceX subscription.
A bitcoin rally that extends through the roadshow suggests that the spot-ETF bid has decoupled crypto from broader risk-on flows.