A historic stock market debut is imminent, with SpaceX's planned $75 billion IPO drawing interest from the same liquidity pool as crypto. The company filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming for a $1.75 trillion valuation. If successful, this would be the largest stock market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019.
SpaceX is not alone, as OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning to go public, potentially raising over $60 billion. The combined capital pull of these IPOs could exceed every venture-backed US IPO since 2000, according to PitchBook. This massive influx of capital may lead to a rotation out of equities and into these new listings, potentially affecting the crypto market.
Crypto assets, including bitcoin and ether, have traded in tandem with tech and AI equities, and the historical parallel with Coinbase's 2021 IPO is a point of concern. The lesson learned from Coinbase's listing is that institutional milestones can mark tops rather than starting lines, as the capital that chases these milestones is often the same capital that was previously supporting the asset. SpaceX's IPO may have a direct impact on crypto flows, given its 30% retail allocation and material bitcoin position disclosed under new fair-value accounting rules.
The upcoming roadshow window in May and June will be a testable signal for whether crypto can hold up against the anticipated capital pull.