A historic stock market debut is imminent, with SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO) expected to take place in June, potentially drawing interest away from the crypto market. The company has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming to raise $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion. This would make it the largest stock market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019. OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning to go public, with valuations nearing $1 trillion and $60 billion, respectively.
The combined capital raised by these companies could exceed $240 billion, a figure that surpasses every venture-backed US IPO since 2000. This massive influx of capital could lead to a rotation out of equities and into these new listings, potentially compressing liquidity in other markets, including crypto. Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies have traded in tandem with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 in recent cycles, and a significant allocation of capital to these IPOs could lead to a decrease in demand for crypto assets.
The historical parallel with Coinbase's IPO in 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, is a point of concern. The 30% retail allocation in SpaceX's IPO, roughly $22 billion, could also divert funds away from crypto.
Furthermore, SpaceX's material bitcoin position, worth around $600 million, makes its IPO the first public-market debut of a company with a significant disclosed bitcoin holding. The impact of these IPOs on the crypto market will be closely watched, particularly during the roadshow window in May and June.