Bitcoin's Uptrend Faces Hurdle as Pentagon Warns of Prolonged Inflation

As bitcoin appeared poised to break through the $80,000 threshold, macroeconomic uncertainty has resurfaced as a significant obstacle. A classified briefing by the Pentagon to U.S. lawmakers revealed that clearing mines in the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial oil passage, may take at least six months and will only commence after the U.S.-Iran conflict is resolved. The briefing also cautioned that gasoline and oil prices may remain elevated until the midterm elections, potentially keeping inflation high and limiting the Federal Reserve's ability to reduce interest rates. This could negatively impact risk assets, including bitcoin, which is highly sensitive to interest rates and global liquidity conditions. Rising costs for essential items like fuel and food may also deter investors from allocating capital to speculative assets. Market risks are increasing, with WTI crude prices rising to around $95 and government bond yields climbing across major economies. Despite sustained demand for U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs, some analysts are urging caution, citing the rally's lack of broad-based support in the spot market. The recent price increase is largely driven by demand in the perpetual futures market, while spot demand continues to contract. The market capitalization of USDT, the largest dollar-pegged stablecoin, has reached a record high, and speculation in non-serious tokens is intensifying. A bullish crossover in the ratio of bitcoin's price to gold may indicate continued outperformance of bitcoin relative to gold.