A historic stock market debut is imminent, with SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO) expected to take place in June, drawing interest from the same liquidity pool as cryptocurrencies. SpaceX has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming to raise $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion.
If successful, this would surpass Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019, making it the largest stock market debut in history. OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning to go public, with valuations nearing $1 trillion and $60 billion, respectively. The combined capital raised by these companies could exceed $240 billion, a figure that surpasses every venture-backed US IPO since 2000. This massive influx of capital may lead to a compression of liquidity in the crypto market, as investors allocate their funds to these new listings.
The correlation between crypto and tech stocks has been tightening over the past two cycles, with bitcoin and other majors trading in tandem with the Nasdaq and S&P 500. When speculative capital leaves equities for an IPO allocation, it may also leave the crypto market, potentially causing a decline in prices. The historical parallel with Coinbase's IPO in 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, is a point of concern. The 30% retail allocation in SpaceX's IPO, roughly $22 billion, may also divert funds away from crypto investments.
Furthermore, SpaceX's material bitcoin position, worth around $600 million, makes its IPO the first public-market debut of a company with a significant disclosed bitcoin holding. The upcoming weeks will be crucial in determining whether crypto can decouple from broader risk-on flows and hold up through the roadshow window.