Bitcoin has maintained its position above $77,000, following a significant surge earlier in the week to its highest level since February. This upward trend puts the cryptocurrency on track for a 13.6% increase in April, its best monthly performance in a year, according to data from CoinGlass. The rebound comes after a challenging period for crypto markets, which experienced their longest losing streak since 2018, with consecutive monthly declines from October to February.

The improvement in the broader macroeconomic landscape, including a strong recovery in U.S. equities, has contributed to this turnaround. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have regained their record highs after briefly entering correction territory earlier in the year.

A key driver of this move is the growth of Tether's USDT, the largest stablecoin, which has increased its supply to nearly $150 billion, adding approximately $5 billion over the past two weeks. This growth in stablecoins, which are tied to fiat currencies like the U.S. dollar and serve as liquidity in crypto markets, is often seen as an indicator of capital flowing into the crypto market, signaling a positive trend for asset prices. Despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and elevated oil prices due to the Iran war, markets appear to be looking beyond these concerns.

According to Jasper de Maere, an OTC trader at Wintermute, strong corporate earnings and the resilience of equity markets are offsetting worries about higher energy costs and geopolitical risks. De Maere noted that markets seem to have become complacent about the intricate details of the conflict. The next significant test for bitcoin will be the April Fed meeting, which could determine whether the current rally is sustained.

If institutional demand continues to drive the move, breaking through the $79,000 level could mark a more durable shift, according to Adam Haeems, head of asset management at Tesseract Group. However, if the move is primarily driven by short covering, it may fade once momentum cools. The continued inflow of funds into ETFs through the Fed meeting could turn the $79,000 level from resistance to support, potentially opening the door for a higher trading range.

Conversely, if flows diminish, bitcoin may revert to the $75,000-$77,000 range.