A monumental IPO is on the horizon, with SpaceX's highly anticipated listing expected to take place in just six weeks, drawing from the same liquidity pool as crypto. The company has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming to raise $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion. If successful, this would surpass the record set by Saudi Aramco's $29 billion IPO in 2019, making it the largest stock-market debut in history.
With OpenAI and Anthropic also planning to go public, the combined capital raised could exceed $240 billion, outpacing the total venture-backed US IPOs since 2000. This massive influx of capital could lead to a rotation out of equities, including crypto, as investors allocate funds to these new listings. The correlation between crypto and tech equities has tightened over the past two cycles, with bitcoin and ether trading in tandem with the Nasdaq and S&P 500. As a result, when speculative capital leaves equities for IPO allocations, it may also impact crypto prices.
The historical precedent of Coinbase's IPO in 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, serves as a cautionary tale. Institutional milestones often signal tops rather than starting lines, as the capital that chases these milestones is the same capital that was previously supporting the asset. SpaceX's IPO, with its 30% retail allocation and material bitcoin position, will be a significant test for crypto markets.
Whether crypto holds up through the roadshow window or begins to drift lower will be a telling sign of its resilience.