In approximately six weeks, one of the largest initial public offerings in history is set to take place, and it may have a significant impact on the crypto market. SpaceX has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming to raise $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion. If successful, this IPO would surpass Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019, making it the largest stock-market debut ever. Additionally, OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning to go public, with valuations nearing $1 trillion and potentially raising over $60 billion, respectively.
The combined capital raised by these companies could exceed $240 billion, surpassing the total amount raised by all venture-backed US IPOs since 2000. This massive capital pull may lead to a compression of liquidity in the crypto market, as it shares the same risk-on liquidity pool as tech and AI equities. Historically, crypto assets such as bitcoin have traded with tightening correlation to the Nasdaq and S&P 500.
When speculative capital leaves equities for an IPO allocation, some of that capital may also leave the crypto market, potentially causing a decline in prices. The upcoming SpaceX IPO may be a test of whether crypto has decoupled from broader risk-on flows, or if it will be affected by the significant capital pull. With a 30% retail allocation and SpaceX holding a material bitcoin position, the IPO may have a direct impact on crypto flows.
The next six weeks will be crucial in determining how crypto responds to this significant event.