A historic stock market debut is imminent, and its impact on crypto markets is a topic of concern. SpaceX has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming for a $75 billion capital raise at a $1.75 trillion valuation. This could be the largest stock market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019.
Polymarket traders predict a 65% chance of a June listing and a 53% probability that the first-day closing market cap will exceed $2 trillion. SpaceX is not alone, as OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning to go public, potentially raising over $60 billion and $240 billion combined from June through year-end. This massive capital pull could trigger a rotation out of equities and into these new listings, affecting crypto markets in the process.
Bitcoin, ether, and other major cryptos have traded in tandem with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 over the past two cycles, and a decrease in speculative capital in equities could lead to a decrease in crypto prices. The historical parallel with Coinbase's IPO in 2021 is a point of concern, as it marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle.
The 30% retail allocation in SpaceX's IPO, roughly $22 billion, is three times the typical retail share, and this could divert funds away from crypto markets. Additionally, SpaceX holds 8,285 BTC worth roughly $600 million, making its IPO the first public-market debut of a company with a material bitcoin position disclosed under new fair-value accounting rules. The testable signal going forward is whether crypto holds up through the roadshow window in May and June or begins to drift lower as allocators free up room for the SpaceX subscription.
A bitcoin rally that extends through the roadshow suggests that crypto has decoupled from broader risk-on flows.