The recent 15% monthly gain of Bitcoin, currently trading at $78,022.93, has not convinced all industry experts that it has escaped the bear market that began in October, given that it remains 40% below its record high. Some forecasters predict a potential drop to as low as $40,000, a 70% decline from its all-time high.
Bitcoin analyst James Check considers such a move unlikely, stating it would be statistically extraordinary, although not impossible. Check references the Bitcoin Mean Reversion Index, which combines key valuation metrics such as the 200-week moving average and realized price. When modeled at $40,000, Bitcoin falls into the 0.4th percentile of all daily closes, described as below any meaningful deviation. For perspective, Check notes this would be equivalent to Bitcoin trading below $2 in 2011 on a relative basis, whereas the current price is around the 31.5th percentile, historically weak but within normal correction ranges.
Check emphasizes that while there's no zero probability in markets, a $40,000 price point would be a near-unprecedented outcome.