A historic stock market debut is on the horizon, with SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO) expected to take place in June, and its impact on the crypto market is a topic of interest. SpaceX has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming to raise $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion. If successful, this would be the largest stock market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion IPO in 2019. Meanwhile, OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning to go public, with valuations nearing $1 trillion and $60 billion, respectively.
The combined capital raised by these companies could exceed $240 billion, a figure that surpasses the total venture-backed US IPOs since 2000. This massive capital pull may affect the liquidity of the crypto market, as it shares the same risk-on liquidity pool as tech and AI equities. Bitcoin, ether, and other major cryptocurrencies have been trading in tandem with the Nasdaq and S&P 500, and a significant shift in liquidity could impact their prices. The historical parallel with Coinbase's IPO in 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, serves as a warning that institutional milestones can signal market tops rather than starting lines.
With SpaceX's IPO allocating 30% to retail investors, approximately $22 billion, and the company holding 8,285 BTC worth around $600 million, the crypto market will be closely watching the developments. The testable signal will be whether crypto holds up through the roadshow window in May and June or begins to drift lower as allocators prepare for the SpaceX subscription.
A bitcoin rally extending through the roadshow period could indicate that the spot-ETF bid has decoupled crypto from broader risk-on flows, but the outcome remains uncertain.