A historic stock market debut is imminent, and its impact on the crypto market is a topic of interest. SpaceX has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming to raise $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion.
If successful, this would be the largest stock market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019. The listing is expected to take place in June, with Polymarket traders assigning a 65% probability to this timeline and a 53% probability that the first-day closing market cap will exceed $2 trillion. SpaceX is not alone in its plans, as OpenAI and Anthropic are also preparing for their public market debuts, targeting valuations near $1 trillion and $60 billion, respectively. The combined capital raise of over $240 billion from June to year-end would be unprecedented, exceeding every venture-backed US IPO since 2000, according to PitchBook estimates.
This massive influx of capital could lead to a rotation out of equities and into these new listings, potentially triggering a bearish trend in the market. Alex Good, founder of crypto AI project Post Fiat, warns that the SpaceX IPO could mark the beginning of a bearish equities trend, drawing parallels to the Solana $300 moment.
The mechanical setup, where the three largest listings are concentrated in a six-month window, could lead to a compression of liquidity in assets outside of these new names. Crypto assets, including bitcoin and ether, are closely tied to the same risk-on liquidity pool that funds tech and AI equities, and their correlation with Nasdaq and the S&P 500 has tightened over the past two cycles.
As speculative capital leaves equities for IPO allocations, some of this capital would otherwise be used to bid up higher-beta assets, including crypto. Historically, institutional milestones have often marked the peak of a cycle rather than its beginning. The Coinbase listing on April 14, 2021, is a notable example, as it coincided with the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, followed by a 50% drawdown within six weeks.
The lesson learned is that capital that chases milestones is often the same capital that was previously supporting the asset. Two key features of the SpaceX listing connect directly to crypto flows: the 30% retail allocation, roughly $22 billion, and the company's material bitcoin position, with 8,285 BTC worth approximately $600 million held in Coinbase Prime custody. As the roadshow window approaches in May and June, the testable signal will be whether crypto holds up or begins to drift lower as allocators free up room for the SpaceX subscription. A bitcoin rally that extends through the roadshow period could suggest that the spot-ETF bid has decoupled crypto from broader risk-on flows.
However, the impact of the SpaceX IPO on the crypto market remains to be seen, and whether crypto treats this lesson as learned or learns it again will be visible in the market trends starting roughly six weeks from now.