A historic stock market debut is imminent, with SpaceX's initial public offering expected to take place in June, potentially drawing interest away from crypto. The company has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming to raise $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion.
This would make it the largest stock market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019. Polymarket traders predict a 65% chance of the IPO happening in June and a 53% chance that the first-day closing market cap will exceed $2 trillion. SpaceX is not alone, as OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning to go public, with the three companies potentially raising over $240 billion from June to year-end.
This capital pull could exceed every venture-backed US IPO combined since 2000, according to PitchBook. The massive influx of capital could lead to a rotation out of equities and into these new listings, potentially affecting crypto prices. Crypto sits in the same risk-on liquidity pool as tech and AI equities, and when speculative capital leaves equities for an IPO allocation, it may also leave crypto.
The historical parallel with Coinbase's IPO in 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, is a point of concern. The 30% retail allocation in SpaceX's IPO, roughly $22 billion, is three times the typical retail share on a deal this size, and may draw money away from crypto. Additionally, SpaceX holds 8,285 BTC worth roughly $600 million, making its IPO the first public-market debut of a company with a material bitcoin position disclosed under the new fair-value accounting rules.
The testable signal going forward is whether crypto holds up through the roadshow window in May and June or begins to drift lower as allocators free up room for the SpaceX subscription.