Bitcoin has maintained its position above $77,000, following a notable surge to its highest level since early February. The cryptocurrency's 13.6% increase in April positions it for its most impressive monthly performance in a year, according to CoinGlass data, rebounding from a prolonged losing streak that lasted from October to February. The improvement in the macroeconomic landscape, marked by a strong recovery in US equities with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching record highs, has contributed to the turnaround.
Additionally, a significant factor specific to the crypto market is the substantial growth in the supply of Tether's USDT, the largest stablecoin, which has increased by approximately $5 billion over the past two weeks to nearly $150 billion. This expansion is crucial as stablecoins serve as a source of liquidity in crypto markets, signaling the flow of capital into the sector. Analysts view the growth of stablecoins as an indication of healthy asset prices.
However, geopolitical uncertainties, particularly regarding the Iran war, continue to affect oil prices. Jasper de Maere, an OTC trader at Wintermute, observed that equity and crypto markets seem to have become less concerned about the intricacies of the conflict, possibly due to fatigue or complacency. He noted that robust corporate earnings and resilient equity markets have helped mitigate concerns about higher energy costs and geopolitical risks.
The upcoming Fed meeting in April will be a crucial test for bitcoin, which is currently hovering near the top of its trading range. The $79,000 level has proven to be a significant barrier, with traders taking profits.
According to Adam Haeems, head of asset management at Tesseract Group, this level is structurally important due to the substantial institutional supply just above it. The ability of bitcoin to break through this level will depend on the drivers of the move and the participants involved.
A breakout supported by sustained institutional demand could mark a durable shift, whereas a move driven primarily by short covering may fade once momentum cools. The continuation of ETF inflows through the Fed meeting could transform $79,000 from resistance to support, potentially leading to a higher trading range. Conversely, if flows diminish, bitcoin may revert to the $75,000-$77,000 range.