A historic stock market debut is imminent, with SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO) expected to take place in June, potentially drawing interest away from crypto markets. SpaceX has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming to raise $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion. This would make it the largest stock market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019.
The listing is likely to have a significant impact on the market, with Polymarket traders assigning a 65% probability of a June listing and a 53% probability that the first-day closing market cap will exceed $2 trillion. SpaceX is not alone, as OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning to go public, with the three companies potentially raising over $240 billion from June to the end of the year. This massive capital pull could lead to a compression of liquidity in markets outside of these new listings, including crypto. Bitcoin, ether, and other major cryptocurrencies have traded in tandem with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 over the past two cycles, and the impending IPOs could lead to a rotation out of these assets.
The historical parallel with Coinbase's IPO in 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, is a cause for concern. The lesson from this experience is that institutional milestones often mark the top of a cycle rather than the starting line, as the capital that chases these milestones is often the same capital that was previously supporting the asset. SpaceX's IPO has two features that connect directly to crypto flows: the 30% retail allocation, which is three times the typical retail share, and the company's holding of 8,285 BTC worth roughly $600 million.
The testable signal going forward is whether crypto will hold up through the roadshow window in May and June or begin to drift lower as allocators free up room for the SpaceX subscription. A bitcoin rally that extends through the roadshow period could suggest that the spot-ETF bid has decoupled crypto from broader risk-on flows.