A historic stock market debut is imminent, with SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO) expected to take place in June, drawing interest from the same liquidity pool as crypto. The company has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming for a $75 billion capital raise at a $1.75 trillion valuation. If successful, this would be the largest stock market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019.
SpaceX is not alone, as OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning to go public, with the three companies potentially pulling in over $240 billion from June to the end of the year. This massive capital influx could have a significant impact on the crypto market, as it sits in the same risk-on liquidity pool as tech and AI equities. The correlation between bitcoin, ether, and other major cryptocurrencies with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 has been tightening over the past two cycles. As speculative capital leaves equities for IPO allocations, some of the capital that would otherwise drive up crypto prices may be redirected.
Historically, institutional milestones have often marked the beginning of a decline rather than an upswing, as the capital that chases these milestones is the same capital that previously supported the asset. The 30% retail allocation for SpaceX's IPO, worth roughly $22 billion, is three times the typical retail share for a deal of this size, and this capital will not be available to bid on cryptocurrencies. Furthermore, SpaceX's IPO will be the first public-market debut of a company with a material bitcoin position disclosed under the new fair-value accounting rules.
The testable signal going forward will be whether crypto holds up through the roadshow window in May and June or begins to decline as allocators free up room for the SpaceX subscription.