Bitcoin Surpasses $75,000 as Iran Ceasefire Discussions Advance and Equities Rally Gains Momentum

Bitcoin has regained its footing above $75,000 as the market anticipates another potential diplomatic resolution. The cryptocurrency saw a 1.5% increase over 24 hours and a 1.7% gain over the week, following Iran's confirmation of its participation in a second round of ceasefire talks in Pakistan. Other notable gains included Ether, which rose 1.2% to $2,310, XRP, which gained 1.3% to $1.43, and BNB, which climbed 1.5% to $630. In contrast, Solana experienced a more modest increase of 0.9% and a weekly decline of 1.1%. The MSCI All Country World Index resumed its upward trend, rising 0.1% as Asian equities led the charge, with the regional tech index advancing 2.4%. Meanwhile, Brent crude fell 0.7% to $94.81 per barrel, gold slipped 0.6% to approximately $4,800, and silver dropped 1% to $78.90. Treasuries and the dollar saw minimal changes. With the two-week ceasefire set to expire on Wednesday evening, Washington time, and Trump indicating that an extension is unlikely, the market is now focused on this deadline. Three vessels attempted to navigate the Strait of Hormuz early on Tuesday, despite the ongoing US and Iranian blockades, marking the first test of whether the waterway will reopen before a deal is signed. Throughout this cycle, Bitcoin has trailed behind equities. The MSCI ACWI has experienced an 11-day rally, with only one stumble since the conflict de-escalation began, while Bitcoin has spent the same period rebuilding from below $74,000 to just above $75,000. This lag can be attributed, in part, to structural factors. Funding rates for Bitcoin perpetual futures have remained negative for approximately 46 consecutive days, according to Bloomberg data, representing the longest such stretch since the FTX collapse in late 2022. Net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs rose to $996.4 million last week, per SoSoValue, while Ethereum spot ETFs took in $275.8 million. Research firm Kaiko noted in a weekend report that a break above $76,000 would pave the way for a potential rise to $85,000. On the mining front, a different signal emerges. Public mining companies sold a record 32,000 BTC in the first quarter, according to TheEnergyMag, surpassing the total sold in all of 2025 and exceeding the 20,000 BTC miners dumped after the Terra collapse in Q2 2022. Bitcoin's mining difficulty decreased 2.43% to 135.59 trillion at the latest adjustment, while the network hashrate recovered from roughly 978 exahashes per second to 992 EH/s this month, per Glassnode. Traders seeking shorter-term signals will be watching whether Bitcoin breaks $76,000 on news of progress in the Pakistan talks, which could trigger a short squeeze, or slides back below $74,000 if Trump's Wednesday deadline expires without a deal. A more profound signal lies in the mining data, which suggests that production economics remain under pressure despite the price recovery, and any sustained rally above $80,000 would need to account for continued treasury selling from miners.