The upcoming IPOs of SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are expected to raise over $240 billion, a figure exceeding all venture-backed US IPOs since 2000. This massive capital pull may affect crypto, which operates within the same liquidity pool as tech and AI equities. With a potential $75 billion capital raise, SpaceX's IPO could be the largest in history, drawing interest and liquidity away from crypto. The timing of these IPOs, concentrated within a six-month window, may trigger index-driven flows, sector-rotation effects, and a compression of liquidity in non-IPO assets, including crypto.
As a result, crypto's correlation with Nasdaq and the S&P 500 may lead to a decline in value as speculative capital shifts towards IPO allocations. Historical parallels, such as Coinbase's 2021 listing, suggest that institutional milestones can mark tops rather than starting lines for crypto.
The 30% retail allocation in SpaceX's IPO and the company's significant bitcoin holdings may also impact crypto flows. The next few weeks will be crucial in determining whether crypto can decouple from broader risk-on flows and hold up through the roadshow window.