Quantum Computing Threat to Crypto on the Horizon, Experts Warn

A newly released report, commissioned by Coinbase, serves as a warning to the crypto industry: although quantum computing does not currently pose a threat to crypto, it is crucial that preparations begin immediately to mitigate potential future risks. The report, authored by a panel of renowned cryptographers and academics, emphasizes that while today's blockchains are secure, the possibility of a future quantum computer capable of breaking widely used encryption is becoming increasingly plausible. Google researchers have estimated that a sufficiently advanced quantum computer could potentially break Bitcoin's cryptography, prompting major crypto ecosystems to start developing responses. The Ethereum Foundation has proposed new digital signature types designed to be safe against quantum computers, while Solana and others are experimenting with quantum-resistant wallet designs. Although current quantum machines are not powerful enough to crack the cryptography underpinning Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other networks, the report cautions against complacency, stressing that a large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computer will eventually be built, with the timeline uncertain but clearly on the horizon. The report highlights the importance of migrating to quantum-resistant cryptography by 2035, as recommended by the U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), and emphasizes that waiting for the threat to become urgent is not a viable strategy. The transition to quantum-resistant cryptography, however, is not straightforward, with post-quantum digital signatures being significantly larger than current ones, potentially increasing blockchain data costs and reducing throughput. The report outlines multiple transition strategies, including hybrid systems that combine existing cryptography with post-quantum updates, and recommends flexible approaches that avoid sacrificing current security or performance while enabling rapid upgrades later.