A historic stock market debut is imminent, and its impact on crypto markets is uncertain. SpaceX has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming to raise $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion.
This massive offering, combined with the upcoming listings of OpenAI and Anthropic, could pull in over $240 billion from June to year-end, exceeding the total venture-backed US IPOs since 2000. The timing of these listings could lead to a bearish outlook on equities, affecting crypto markets as well. As crypto assets are part of the same risk-on liquidity pool as tech and AI equities, a rotation out of equities could impact bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies.
Historical parallels, such as Coinbase's IPO in 2021, suggest that institutional milestones can mark the beginning of a decline rather than a surge. The 30% retail allocation in SpaceX's IPO and the company's significant bitcoin holdings could also influence crypto flows. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether crypto markets can decouple from broader risk-on flows or will be affected by the upcoming IPOs.