A historic stock market debut is imminent, with SpaceX's planned $75 billion initial public offering set to take place in June, potentially siphoning off liquidity from the crypto market. SpaceX filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC earlier this month, aiming for a $1.75 trillion valuation.
If successful, this would be the largest stock market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019. This massive capital raise, combined with the expected listings of OpenAI and Anthropic, could pull in over $240 billion from June to the end of the year, exceeding the total amount raised by all venture-backed US IPOs since 2000. The potential impact on crypto is significant, as the same liquidity pool that fuels tech and AI equities also supports crypto. Bitcoin, ether, and other major cryptocurrencies have traded in tandem with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 over the past two cycles, and a large-scale IPO allocation could divert speculative capital away from crypto.
Historical parallels, such as Coinbase's listing in April 2021, which coincided with the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, suggest that institutional milestones can mark the beginning of a downturn rather than an upswing. The 30% retail allocation in SpaceX's IPO, approximately $22 billion, could further reduce liquidity in the crypto market, as this capital will not be available to bid on cryptocurrencies. Additionally, SpaceX's disclosed bitcoin position, worth around $600 million, makes its IPO the first public-market debut of a company with a significant bitcoin holding. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether crypto can withstand the impending IPO or if it will begin to decline as allocators prepare for the SpaceX subscription.