A historic stock market debut is imminent, with SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO) expected to take place in June, drawing interest from the same liquidity pool as crypto. SpaceX has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming to raise $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion. This would make it the largest stock market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019.
The offering is expected to have a significant impact on the crypto market, as it will compete for liquidity with bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning to go public, with valuations nearing $1 trillion and $60 billion, respectively.
The combined capital raise of over $240 billion from these IPOs could exceed the total venture-backed US IPOs since 2000, according to PitchBook. This massive influx of capital could lead to a rotation out of equities and into these new listings, potentially triggering a bearish trend in the market.
Crypto assets, including bitcoin, may be affected as they are part of the same risk-on liquidity pool as tech and AI equities. The historical parallel with Coinbase's listing in 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, is a point of concern. Institutional milestones often mark tops rather than starting lines, as the capital that chases these milestones is the same capital that was previously holding up the asset.
The SpaceX IPO has two features that connect directly to crypto flows: a 30% retail allocation and the company's material bitcoin position disclosed under the new fair-value accounting rules. The testable signal going forward is whether crypto holds up through the roadshow window in May and June or begins to drift lower as allocators free up room for the SpaceX subscription.