A historic stock market debut is approaching, with SpaceX's $75 billion IPO expected to draw significant interest and potentially disrupting the crypto market. The company has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation.
This massive capital raise could lead to a significant shift in liquidity, affecting not only the stock market but also the crypto space. With OpenAI and Anthropic also planning to go public, the combined capital raise could exceed $240 billion, surpassing the total venture-backed US IPOs since 2000.
The impact on crypto could be substantial, as bitcoin and other digital assets are closely tied to the same liquidity pool as tech and AI equities. The historical parallel with Coinbase's IPO in 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, is a cause for concern.
As institutional capital rotates out of crypto and into these new IPOs, the crypto market may experience a downturn. However, if crypto holds up through the roadshow window in May and June, it could indicate that the spot-ETF bid has decoupled crypto from broader risk-on flows.