A historic stock market debut is imminent, and the crypto market is bracing for impact. SpaceX has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, seeking to raise $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion. If successful, this would be the largest stock market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019.
With OpenAI and Anthropic also planning to go public, the combined capital raise could exceed $240 billion, surpassing the total venture-backed US IPOs since 2000. This massive influx of capital could divert attention and funds away from the crypto market, potentially causing a downturn.
The crypto market's correlation with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 has tightened over the past two cycles, and the rotation of speculative capital into IPOs could leave crypto assets, including bitcoin, vulnerable to a decline. The historical parallel with Coinbase's IPO in 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, serves as a warning that institutional milestones can frequently mark tops rather than starting lines.
With SpaceX's IPO expected to draw significant retail allocation and the company holding a material bitcoin position, the crypto market will be closely watching the developments in the coming weeks.