Despite Bitcoin's recent 15% monthly gain, some industry experts remain unconvinced that the cryptocurrency has escaped the bear market that began in October, given its current price is still 40% below its record high. Some forecasters predict a potential drop to $40,000, a 70% decline from its all-time high. Analyst James Check considers such a move statistically extraordinary, though not impossible. Check references the Bitcoin Mean Reversion Index, which ranks Bitcoin's price on a historical percentile basis.
At $40,000, Bitcoin would register as a 0.4 event, falling in the 0.4th percentile of all daily closes, below any meaningful deviation across major anchors. This would be equivalent to Bitcoin trading below $2 in 2011 on a relative basis. By contrast, the current price is around the 31.5th percentile, historically weak but within normal correction ranges. Check notes that while there's no zero probability in markets, a $40,000 price point would be a near-unprecedented outcome.